[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":635},["ShallowReactive",2],{"blog-post-\u002Fblog\u002Fbitcoin-sth-sopr-on-chain-guide-2026":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"author":6,"body":10,"categories":614,"coverImage":618,"description":619,"extension":620,"featured":621,"meta":622,"navigation":623,"path":624,"publishedAt":625,"seo":626,"stem":627,"tags":628,"updatedAt":625,"__hash__":634},"blog\u002Fblog\u002Fbitcoin-sth-sopr-on-chain-guide-2026.md","How to Read Bitcoin STH-SOPR: A Practical On-Chain Guide for 2026",{"name":7,"handle":8,"avatar":9},"chartbreaker","@chartbreaker","\u002Fimages\u002Fauthors\u002Fchartbreaker.svg",{"type":11,"value":12,"toc":588},"minimark",[13,22,25,28,33,40,43,51,74,85,87,91,94,101,108,111,113,117,122,125,129,132,136,139,143,146,148,152,155,161,164,180,187,189,193,209,212,279,286,288,292,296,299,325,329,332,336,343,350,353,357,360,364,375,378,380,384,390,400,406,412,414,418,508,511,513,517,547,549,553,556,579,581],[14,15,16,17,21],"p",{},"If you've ever sold Bitcoin at a loss — only to watch it recover days later — you weren't alone. On-chain data can tell you when that kind of mass capitulation is happening in real time. One of the sharpest tools for catching those moments is ",[18,19,20],"strong",{},"Short-Term Holder SOPR"," (STH-SOPR).",[14,23,24],{},"Most traders know SOPR exists. Few know how to actually use it. This guide walks you through the mechanics, interpretation, and current 2026 readings — so you can stop guessing and start reading the chain like it's meant to be read.",[26,27],"hr",{},[29,30,32],"h2",{"id":31},"what-is-sopr-the-one-line-version","What Is SOPR? The One-Line Version",[14,34,35,36,39],{},"SOPR stands for ",[18,37,38],{},"Spent Output Profit Ratio",". It measures whether coins being moved on-chain are, on average, being sold at a profit or a loss.",[14,41,42],{},"The formula is simple:",[44,45,46],"blockquote",{},[14,47,48],{},[18,49,50],{},"SOPR = Price at time of spending ÷ Price at time of acquisition",[52,53,54,62,68],"ul",{},[55,56,57,58,61],"li",{},"SOPR ",[18,59,60],{},"above 1.0"," → coins are being moved at a profit",[55,63,57,64,67],{},[18,65,66],{},"below 1.0"," → coins are being moved at a loss",[55,69,57,70,73],{},[18,71,72],{},"exactly 1.0"," → coins are being moved at breakeven",[14,75,76,77,80,81,84],{},"The Short-Term Holder variant (STH-SOPR) narrows this to ",[18,78,79],{},"coins that moved within the last 155 days",". This filters out long-term HODLers — whose cost basis is often so low they're almost always in profit — and focuses on ",[18,82,83],{},"recent buyers",": the people most sensitive to price swings.",[26,86],{},[29,88,90],{"id":89},"why-sth-sopr-is-more-useful-than-plain-sopr","Why STH-SOPR Is More Useful Than Plain SOPR",[14,92,93],{},"The full SOPR includes all spent outputs, which can be noisy. Long-term holders move coins infrequently, but when they do, they almost always show a large profit — distorting the signal.",[14,95,96,97,100],{},"STH-SOPR isolates the ",[18,98,99],{},"emotionally reactive cohort",": people who bought in the last five months and are now facing a decision about whether to hold, sell, or panic.",[14,102,103,104,107],{},"This group drives a disproportionate share of market volatility. When STH-SOPR drops well below 1.0, it means recent buyers are selling at a loss — the textbook definition of ",[18,105,106],{},"capitulation",". Historically, sustained readings below 1.0 have preceded recoveries.",[14,109,110],{},"Glassnode's breakdown separates STH and LTH SOPR specifically to capture this dynamic, noting that \"during bear markets, STH-SOPR spending in loss is the dominant regime.\"",[26,112],{},[29,114,116],{"id":115},"reading-the-signal-four-key-zones","Reading the Signal: Four Key Zones",[118,119,121],"h3",{"id":120},"zone-1-healthy-bull-sth-sopr-105","Zone 1 — Healthy Bull: STH-SOPR > 1.05",[14,123,124],{},"Recent buyers are in profit and actively realising gains. This is normal in an uptrend. Watch for spikes above 1.10 as potential local tops, where profit-taking pressure becomes significant.",[118,126,128],{"id":127},"zone-2-distribution-warning-sth-sopr-100105","Zone 2 — Distribution Warning: STH-SOPR 1.00–1.05",[14,130,131],{},"The margin is thin. Recent buyers are barely in profit. Any dip can flip the metric below 1.0. Often seen at range highs or during slow bleed-downs.",[118,133,135],{"id":134},"zone-3-capitulation-zone-sth-sopr-090099","Zone 3 — Capitulation Zone: STH-SOPR 0.90–0.99",[14,137,138],{},"Recent buyers are selling at a loss. This is where market bottoms typically form. The longer the metric stays in this range, the more thorough the washout.",[118,140,142],{"id":141},"zone-4-extreme-capitulation-sth-sopr-090","Zone 4 — Extreme Capitulation: STH-SOPR \u003C 0.90",[14,144,145],{},"Deep loss-taking. Historically rare outside of major crash events (March 2020, May 2021, November 2022). When you see this, the sellers have nearly exhausted themselves.",[26,147],{},[29,149,151],{"id":150},"where-sth-sopr-sits-in-april-2026","Where STH-SOPR Sits in April 2026",[14,153,154],{},"The current cycle has produced a textbook capitulation setup. Here's what the data shows:",[14,156,157,160],{},[18,158,159],{},"STH-SOPR: 0.92–0.96"," (as of Q1 2026 data)",[14,162,163],{},"Recent buyers are realising 4–8% average losses on moved coins. This is the Zone 3\u002F4 boundary — classic late-stage capitulation territory. Notably:",[52,165,166,169],{},[55,167,168],{},"The metric spent the entirety of Q1 2026 below 1.0, meaning buyers who entered during Bitcoin's $90K–$108K range (late 2025) are now underwater and selling into weakness.",[55,170,171,172,175,176,179],{},"On April 9–10, 2026, Bitcoin exchange netflow swung to ",[18,173,174],{},"-7,974 BTC (-$582M)"," — a massive outflow from exchanges even as price stalled. That divergence (STH-SOPR in loss + exchange outflows accelerating) is typically read as ",[18,177,178],{},"long-term holders absorbing the capitulation",".",[14,181,182,183,186],{},"For context: Bitcoin's exchange reserves sit at ",[18,184,185],{},"2,693,000 BTC",", down 170,000 BTC in the last six months. The slow drain of coins from exchanges alongside low STH-SOPR is historically an accumulation signal.",[26,188],{},[29,190,192],{"id":191},"the-mvrvsopr-combination-a-two-factor-check","The MVRV–SOPR Combination: A Two-Factor Check",[14,194,195,196,199,200,204,205,208],{},"STH-SOPR is most powerful when read alongside ",[18,197,198],{},"MVRV"," (Market Value to Realized Value). Where SOPR tells you what's happening ",[201,202,203],"em",{},"right now"," (are coins being sold at a loss?), MVRV tells you the ",[201,206,207],{},"big picture"," (is the entire market over- or under-valued relative to cost basis?).",[14,210,211],{},"Current readings as of April 2026:",[213,214,215,231],"table",{},[216,217,218],"thead",{},[219,220,221,225,228],"tr",{},[222,223,224],"th",{},"Metric",[222,226,227],{},"Value",[222,229,230],{},"What It Means",[232,233,234,246,257,268],"tbody",{},[219,235,236,240,243],{},[237,238,239],"td",{},"MVRV Ratio",[237,241,242],{},"1.41",[237,244,245],{},"Market trades at 41% premium to aggregate cost basis",[219,247,248,251,254],{},[237,249,250],{},"MVRV Z-Score",[237,252,253],{},"~1.2",[237,255,256],{},"Compressed from 3.8 at Oct 2025 highs — well below danger zone",[219,258,259,262,265],{},[237,260,261],{},"STH-SOPR",[237,263,264],{},"0.92–0.96",[237,266,267],{},"Recent buyers capitulating",[219,269,270,273,276],{},[237,271,272],{},"Exchange Reserves",[237,274,275],{},"2.69M BTC",[237,277,278],{},"9-year low — steady self-custody accumulation",[14,280,281,282,285],{},"The MVRV Z-Score reads ",[18,283,284],{},"1.2"," — meaningfully above the \"extreme undervaluation\" zone below 0 but well below the overheated zone above 3.5 that marked prior cycle peaks. This configuration (moderate MVRV + depressed STH-SOPR) looks similar to the setup that preceded the Q4 2023 recovery rally.",[26,287],{},[29,289,291],{"id":290},"how-to-use-sth-sopr-in-practice","How to Use STH-SOPR in Practice",[118,293,295],{"id":294},"step-1-find-the-chart","Step 1 — Find the Chart",[14,297,298],{},"The best free sources:",[52,300,301,307,313,319],{},[55,302,303,306],{},[18,304,305],{},"CryptoQuant"," → Bitcoin → Market Indicators → Short-Term Holder SOPR",[55,308,309,312],{},[18,310,311],{},"CoinGlass"," → On-Chain → STH-SOPR",[55,314,315,318],{},[18,316,317],{},"Glassnode"," (free tier has limited delay)",[55,320,321,324],{},[18,322,323],{},"Bitbo.io"," → Charts → SOPR",[118,326,328],{"id":327},"step-2-set-your-baseline","Step 2 — Set Your Baseline",[14,330,331],{},"Always know what \"1.0\" looks like on the chart you're using. Some platforms display a horizontal line at 1.0; others require you to eyeball it. The value 1.0 is your pivot — everything above it is profit territory, everything below is loss territory.",[118,333,335],{"id":334},"step-3-watch-for-trend-reversals-at-10","Step 3 — Watch for Trend Reversals at 1.0",[14,337,338,339,342],{},"In bull markets, ",[18,340,341],{},"1.0 acts as support",". When STH-SOPR dips briefly below 1.0 and bounces, it signals that sellers quickly exhaust themselves and buyers absorb the dip. This is one of the cleanest re-entry signals in on-chain analysis.",[14,344,345,346,349],{},"In bear markets, the opposite: ",[18,347,348],{},"1.0 acts as resistance",". Rallies where STH-SOPR approaches 1.0 from below tend to fail as sellers who've been waiting to break even take the opportunity to exit.",[14,351,352],{},"Identifying which regime you're in (1.0 as support vs. 1.0 as resistance) is the most important contextual call to make.",[118,354,356],{"id":355},"step-4-use-7-day-or-30-day-moving-averages","Step 4 — Use 7-Day or 30-Day Moving Averages",[14,358,359],{},"Raw daily SOPR is noisy. Most platforms offer a 7-day MA overlay. Use it. What matters is the trend direction, not the daily reading. A 7-day MA that has been below 1.0 for three weeks but is now trending back upward is a far better signal than a single-day spike.",[118,361,363],{"id":362},"step-5-confirm-with-exchange-flows","Step 5 — Confirm with Exchange Flows",[14,365,366,367,370,371,374],{},"STH-SOPR below 1.0 + ",[18,368,369],{},"exchange outflows"," = capitulation being absorbed (bullish context)\nSTH-SOPR below 1.0 + ",[18,372,373],{},"exchange inflows"," = coins moving toward sale (continued distribution risk)",[14,376,377],{},"This two-factor check helps avoid misreading capitulation in a broader downtrend where the distribution is still ongoing.",[26,379],{},[29,381,383],{"id":382},"common-mistakes-when-reading-sth-sopr","Common Mistakes When Reading STH-SOPR",[14,385,386,389],{},[18,387,388],{},"Mistake 1 — Acting on a single day's reading","\nOne sub-1.0 day means almost nothing. You need persistent readings below 1.0, and then the reversal back through 1.0, to have an actionable signal.",[14,391,392,395,396,399],{},[18,393,394],{},"Mistake 2 — Ignoring the broader trend","\nSTH-SOPR can stay below 1.0 for months during structural bear markets (it did throughout 2022). The metric identifies ",[201,397,398],{},"capitulation character",", not automatic bottoms.",[14,401,402,405],{},[18,403,404],{},"Mistake 3 — Confusing STH-SOPR with LTH-SOPR","\nLong-Term Holder SOPR moves much more slowly and requires different interpretation. Don't mix the two signals without understanding the cohort difference.",[14,407,408,411],{},[18,409,410],{},"Mistake 4 — Using it in isolation","\nPair it with MVRV, exchange flows, and basic price structure. Any single on-chain metric, read alone, will give you false signals.",[26,413],{},[29,415,417],{"id":416},"historical-precedents-worth-knowing","Historical Precedents Worth Knowing",[213,419,420,436],{},[216,421,422],{},[219,423,424,427,430,433],{},[222,425,426],{},"Period",[222,428,429],{},"STH-SOPR Trough",[222,431,432],{},"Event",[222,434,435],{},"Outcome",[232,437,438,452,466,480,494],{},[219,439,440,443,446,449],{},[237,441,442],{},"March 2020",[237,444,445],{},"~0.82",[237,447,448],{},"COVID crash",[237,450,451],{},"Recovery to $60K+ within 12 months",[219,453,454,457,460,463],{},[237,455,456],{},"July 2021",[237,458,459],{},"~0.91",[237,461,462],{},"Post-China ban selloff",[237,464,465],{},"Recovery to $69K ATH by November",[219,467,468,471,474,477],{},[237,469,470],{},"June 2022",[237,472,473],{},"~0.85",[237,475,476],{},"Luna\u002F3AC cascade",[237,478,479],{},"Extended bear; bottom in November",[219,481,482,485,488,491],{},[237,483,484],{},"January 2023",[237,486,487],{},"~0.95",[237,489,490],{},"Pre-recovery accumulation",[237,492,493],{},"$15K → $31K by April 2023",[219,495,496,499,502,505],{},[237,497,498],{},"Q1 2026",[237,500,501],{},"~0.92–0.96",[237,503,504],{},"Post-ATH compression",[237,506,507],{},"TBD",[14,509,510],{},"The June 2022 example is the cautionary one: STH-SOPR was deeply negative for months before the actual bottom. The difference was that exchange reserves were rising (distribution) rather than falling (accumulation) as we're seeing now. Context always matters.",[26,512],{},[29,514,516],{"id":515},"practical-takeaways","Practical Takeaways",[52,518,519,525,531,537],{},[55,520,521,524],{},[18,522,523],{},"STH-SOPR is your capitulation detector."," When it's below 1.0, recent buyers are selling at a loss — the classic setup for a sentiment washout and potential reversal.",[55,526,527,530],{},[18,528,529],{},"The 1.0 level is the signal pivot."," Sustained holds above 1.0 = bull regime. Repeated failures at 1.0 = bear regime.",[55,532,533,536],{},[18,534,535],{},"Current reading (0.92–0.96) sits in the capitulation zone."," Combined with accelerating exchange outflows and a 9-year low in exchange reserves, the structural context looks like absorption rather than distribution.",[55,538,539,542,543,546],{},[18,540,541],{},"Do not use any single metric to time trades."," On-chain data illuminates ",[201,544,545],{},"market character",", not price direction with certainty.",[26,548],{},[29,550,552],{"id":551},"where-to-learn-more","Where to Learn More",[14,554,555],{},"If you want to go deeper on on-chain analytics, the tools below provide free access to SOPR, MVRV, and exchange flow data:",[52,557,558,563,568,573],{},[55,559,560,562],{},[18,561,305],{}," — most comprehensive free on-chain dashboard",[55,564,565,567],{},[18,566,317],{}," — research-grade charts and weekly reports",[55,569,570,572],{},[18,571,311],{}," — strong on derivatives + on-chain combination view",[55,574,575,578],{},[18,576,577],{},"checkonchain.com"," — curated Bitcoin-specific metrics with historical context",[26,580],{},[44,582,583],{},[14,584,585],{},[201,586,587],{},"Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.",{"title":589,"searchDepth":590,"depth":590,"links":591},"",2,[592,593,594,601,602,603,610,611,612,613],{"id":31,"depth":590,"text":32},{"id":89,"depth":590,"text":90},{"id":115,"depth":590,"text":116,"children":595},[596,598,599,600],{"id":120,"depth":597,"text":121},3,{"id":127,"depth":597,"text":128},{"id":134,"depth":597,"text":135},{"id":141,"depth":597,"text":142},{"id":150,"depth":590,"text":151},{"id":191,"depth":590,"text":192},{"id":290,"depth":590,"text":291,"children":604},[605,606,607,608,609],{"id":294,"depth":597,"text":295},{"id":327,"depth":597,"text":328},{"id":334,"depth":597,"text":335},{"id":355,"depth":597,"text":356},{"id":362,"depth":597,"text":363},{"id":382,"depth":590,"text":383},{"id":416,"depth":590,"text":417},{"id":515,"depth":590,"text":516},{"id":551,"depth":590,"text":552},[615,616,617],"Education","Trading","On-Chain Analytics","\u002Fimages\u002Fblog\u002Fbitcoin-sth-sopr-on-chain-guide-2026.svg","Learn how Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder SOPR reveals capitulation and recovery signals. Practical 2026 guide with current data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode.","md",false,{},true,"\u002Fblog\u002Fbitcoin-sth-sopr-on-chain-guide-2026","2026-04-19T09:00:00.000Z",{"title":5,"description":619},"blog\u002Fbitcoin-sth-sopr-on-chain-guide-2026",[629,630,631,632,633],"on-chain-analytics","bitcoin","sopr","market-analysis","trading-tools","FGtgm6gVdfkWAeyhkLfRuZb4LkidbqYjth_WwmGGdG4",1779818552705]